from FAZ.NET, 27.2. 2011
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While fighting in Tripoli is still struggling, the east of the country have been celebrating the liberation days. Apparently, there is a large part of the regular military refused the order to fire. From the westlibyschen Suwara there are reports that soldiers opened their arsenal and to plunder freely gave to make the firing commands can no longer follow.
built a state must be
Where is Gaddafi's power broken, cheered and prayed, but there are no new names, no detailed figures, no obvious new power. At best, a makeshift militia ensure order. Already is emerging: the exempted Libya will be a country without rule of law. Finally, forty years Gaddafi has systematically prevented that caused state structures. In the "state of the masses" there should be people and leaders. In Libya, it will go, therefore, not democratization, but to build a state.
Dass das geordnet abläuft, scheint kaum vorstellbar. Im Idealfall würden sich die Führer der Stämme, als einzig funktionierende Machtstruktur, zu einer Regierung zusammenschließen. Wahrscheinlicher aber ist, dass nach dem Ende Gaddafis eine Zeit der Abrechnung beginnt. Und der Kampf um die Kontrolle über den libyschen Reichtum: das Erdöl, das in den nur schwach bevölkerten Gebieten gefördert wird.
Auf einen scheiternden Staat am südlichen Rand des Mittelmeeres ist die EU in keiner Weise vorbereitet. Im Auswärtigen Amt heißt es, man werde auch Libyen eine Transformationspartnerschaft anbieten. Aber in einem Land ohne Zivilgesellschaft, ohne politische Parteien ist completely unclear who could be the partner.
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from New York Times, 27th 2. 2011
from New York Times, 27th 2. 2011
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"At the appropriate time, we will open the arms depots so all Libyans and tribes will be armed," he shouted into a hand-held microphone at dusk Friday, "so that Libya turns red with fire!"
That is indeed the fear of those watching the carnage in Libya, not least because Colonel Qaddafi spent the last 40 years hollowing out every single institution that might challenge his authority. Unlike neighboring Egypt and Tunisia, Libya lacks the steadying hand of a military to buttress a collapsing government. It has no Parliament, no trade unions, no political parties, no civil society, no nongovernmental agencies. Its only strong ministry is the state oil company. The fact that some experts think the next government might be built atop the oil ministry underscores the paucity of options.
The worst-case scenario should the rebellion topple him, and one that concerns American counterterrorism officials, is that of Afghanistan or Somalia — a failed state where Al Qaeda or other radical groups could exploit the chaos and operate with impunity.
But there are others who could step into any vacuum, including Libya’s powerful tribes or a pluralist coalition of opposition forces that have secured the east of the country and are tightening their vise near the capital.
Optimists hope that the opposition’s resolve persists; pessimists worry that unity will last only until Colonel Qaddafi is gone, and that a bloody witch hunt will ensue afterward.
“It is going to be a political vacuum,” said Lisa Anderson, the president of the American University in Cairo and a Libya expert, suggesting that chances are high for a violent period of score-settling. “I don’t think it is likely that people will want to put down their weapons and go back to being bureaucrats.”
There is a short list of Libyan institutions, but each has limits. None of the tribes enjoy national reach, and Colonel Qaddafi deliberately set one against the other, dredging up century-old rivalries even in his latest speeches.
There are a few respected but elderly members of the original 12-member Revolutionary Command Council who joined Colonel Qaddafi in unseating the king in 1969. Some domestic and exiled intellectuals hope that Libya can resurrect the pluralistic society envisioned by the 1951 Constitution, though without a monarch.
And there is the wild card, such as Colonel Qaddafi’s feat at age 27 as a junior officer when he engineered a bloodless coup against a feeble monarchy.
The greatest fear — and one on which experts differ — is that Al Qaeda or Libya’s own Islamist groups, which withstood fierce repression and may have the best organizational skills among the opposition, could gain power.
“We’ve been concerned from the start of the unrest that A.Q. and its affiliates will look for opportunities to exploit any disarray,” said a United States counterterrorism official, referring to Al Qaeda.
Of these affiliates, he mentioned the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, formed by the veterans who fought the Soviets in Afghanistan, and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, the network’s North African affiliate, which hastened to endorse the Libyan uprising last week.
Those groups “could be more successful” in Libya than militants have been so far in Egypt, the counterterrorism official said. “Our counterterrorism experts are watching for any signs that these groups might gain a new foothold there.”
Frederic Wehrey, a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation who just returned from a three-week trip to Libya, said Al Qaeda might try to exploit tribal unrest and seize footholds in the vast ungoverned spaces of southwestern Libya, near the Algerian border. But he added that Sufi Islam, a mystical form of the religion popular among Libyans, has been resistant to the most extreme forms of Salafism favored by Al Qaeda.
“Al Qaeda is very skillful at exploiting tribal grievances, so that’s a concern in the south,” Mr. Wehrey said. “But in terms of whether Libyans are primed for Al Qaeda’s narrative, I don’t think that’s as ominous as some might suspect.”
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To answer the threats that after the Qaddafis comes either an Islamic or tribal deluge, Mustafa Mohamed Abud al-Jeleil, the justice minister who defected to the east, held a forum this week in the eastern city of Baida. It brought together tribal leaders, former military commanders and others who pledged future cooperation.
“We want one country — there is no Islamic emirate or Al Qaeda anywhere,” Mr. Abud al-Jeleil told Al Jazeera . “Our only goal is to liberate Libya from this regime and to allow the people to choose the government that they want.”
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