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Libya: "This is a long, bloody war"

from NZZ am Sonntag, 6. March 2011

talk about the civil war in Libya

insurgent fighters near the oil port of Ras Lanuf.

The British military specialist Barak scene is concerned that Libya is facing a prolonged civil war. But neither can currently achieve victory .

Interview: Victor Merten

NZZ am Sonntag: Mr. lakes, as well fight is known about the boards decision, which is currently in Libya on the part of the regime of Muammar Khaddafi and the insurgents ?

Barak Lakes Not very good, for there is thick powder smoke, the regime is allowed to spread false information. We can not identify which units or individuals to run to the insurgents and those who remain loyal to the regime. It is unclear which units and individuals fighting each other. We can identify individuals, some not.

hears Khaddafi relies mainly on special units to fight the insurgents, especially on the 32nd Brigadier Khamis under his youngest son.

The 32nd Brigade has about 10 000 men and the elite of the three guards des Regimes angesehen. Dies ist keine gewöhnliche Armee-Einheit. Aber die Aufständischen verfügen über grössere Entschlossenheit und Willensstärke als sie. Es ist der Brigade nicht gelungen, eine Gegenoffensive durchzuführen. Darum sieht man jetzt ein Patt. Auf der anderen Seite wissen wir, dass die Angehörigen der Elitetruppen Ghadhafi treu geblieben sind, weil sie Nutzniesser des Regimes sind und grosses Interesse an dessen Überleben haben.

Und sie sollen vom Westen ausgerüstet und ausgebildet sein.

Das hat sich bisher nicht besonders ausgewirkt. Die Opposition kommt mit der überlegenen Feuerkraft the regime cope. The troops of the regime do not fight well. However, the command structure that Khaddafi has created in the elite battalions have been trained by the West and which he held as insurance against a military coup, did not collapse. Only the military has broken down. Moreover Khaddafi has an alternative military power in the shape of the battalions and security services that surround him immediately. Not the whole military is spilled, but only some units and individuals. Khaddafi and can rely on his sons in the chain of command.

Can about to say how many units or soldiers have deserted to the insurgents?

There is absolutely no reliable figures. We only have knowledge of individual units or persons overflowed.

What is known about the foreign mercenaries who Khaddafi should fly in large numbers to the combat zones?

The same applies here: There are no reliable figures. The situation is complicated and changes from day to day.

Despite advantages, is not the morale among the troops loyal to the regime as well as with the insurgents. Why?

Overall, the regime's agents are certainly better armed than the insurgents, but if they fight the enemy on a half-hearted article, the Air Force, for example, shoot at civilians, but they fired many people are unaware wrong, because they would not attack civilians.

What do you think of Khaddafi Khamis, who was trained in Russia and at age 28 is still a very young commander is?

He is very capable, but he has to rely on the older commanders in the chain of command, and works with them. This has resulted from the current situation and was not planned. Although the regime is going on gradually better, he makes little impression on the insurgents.

It says Ghadhafis special units were too small because he wanted to make with their small size that they are absolutely loyal to him.

with the safe with the weakness of the regime. But this is only one of many factors that interact now unforeseen. Khaddafi has successfully secured before the uprising against being overthrown, so he threw his predecessor. In that regard, his authority is always still intact. But now it's about to meet a wide contact, and are not sufficient to merely precautions against a coup. In the same way, Khaddafi left earlier to the system of tribes and played with him, "divide and rule". He never thought that different tribes could join forces against him. He always thought only of survival in the event of a coup.

How will this affect misperceptions?

Libya is now in a protracted civil war because neither side has the ability to quickly impose their will on the other. The regime is also very disorganized, and varies between measures to protect the family Khaddafi and advances against the rebels.

push forward the insurgents are able to Tripoli?

you will be able to advance very slowly. It is not about an organized revolt. The insurgents will not go so by the thousands into trucks to Tripoli. This will be a long, bloody war. The current situation is expected to continue for a long time.

What could change that?

The establishment of a no-fly zone would take Ghadhafis means of communication. He could then spread any more misinformation, and this would be a severe blow to the cohesion of the regime and the ability of its troops communicate with each other. A flight ban would also turn off the air defense, air force and heavy weapons that are now being used against the insurgents. All this would shift the balance in favor of the rebels and make them new defectors. This would alleviate the prolonged and bloody conflict we are experiencing now.

 

Barak Seener

Der Brite Barak Seener ist Nahostexperte am Royal United Services Institute in London, das sich mit Verteidigungs- und Sicherheitsfragen befasst. Er schreibt ausserdem über internationales Recht, Verbreitung von Atomwaffen und transatlantische Beziehungen. (vmt.)